User blog comment:The Black Scorpion/EA, Always-Online DRM and The Sims 4/@comment-1519608-20130821133549

Wait a minute...

The Sims 4 will require Origin (and thus an internet connection) in order to install and verify the installation. However, after that initial verification, you won't need an internet connection to play it. Proof.

Points 4 and 5 would be completely avoided due to the aforementioned not-required-to-be-always-on aspect of TS4. As for the rest of your points, they're all just speculation, nothing more.